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WEEK AHEAD: NOVEMBER 23

Short Description

Bitcoin has taken off like a rocket and is on track to make a new record high. I give my take on whether this is just another bubble or whether the rally in BTC is more durable this time. I also rundown highlights from the economic calendar. Thanks! Rich

Video Script

Another Bitcoin bubble or different this time? - THE WEEK AHEAD (Nov 23-27, 2020)


Hi everyone, I’m previewing the week ahead in markets where the focus this week is on Bitcoin, which is absolutely flying. If it continues at the current pace, Bitcoin will be at a record high in days so I discuss what’s going on and what’s different from the last time the price reached this high in 2017. I will also rundown this week’s economic calendar – which includes November PMIs and FOMC minutes.

There are lots of mad stories about Bitcoin but the one that stands out in my mind is that of my fellow British countryman James Howells. James accidently threw away an old hard drive containing the keys to access his Bitcoins when he was moving house. As the price of Bitcoin grew in value in 2017, James realised he’s thrown away something worth millions. He even offered his local government £7 million British pounds to dig up the landfill site where the hard drive would have been dumped but they refused for environmental reasons. Poor James!

If you liked that lesson in keeping your Bitcoins safe, please click the like button - it really helps us spread the word about these videos!

Moving onto the economic data this week. It’s pretty front-loaded with the first set of November manufacturing and services PMIs released from the Eurozone, UK and US on Monday. Tuesday we’ve got German IFO expectations. Wednesday there is US durable goods and the release of FOMC meeting minutes. On Thursday it’s the Thanksgiving holiday in America so stock exchanges will be closed. Then we finish off with inflation data for Japan.

Last time I focused on Bitcoin was in August when the price broke above the 10,000 level. What I said then, was that I thought it was a defining moment because it’s either a step towards record highs or a headfake. Well now we are on route to a record high and the speed of the ascent has been impressive – especially in the last two weeks. But it can also be a source of concern. 

If you are buying into Bitcoin now, you have to understand you are in a momentum trade- you are simply riding the strong price trend higher. That is absolutely fine as a strategy but the key thing is to pre-define your exit criteria. As an example, if the price drops a certain percentage, you close the trade – that sort of thing. Like the research team noted in last week’s webinar – the price is getting very overbought- that confirms a strong trend but also suggests price has gotten ahead of itself and is due a pullback.

I think a key question we need to ask ourselves is why would Bitcoin getting back near its record high just under $20,000 again will be any different to last time in 2017 when it ended up losing nearly 80% afterwards? For me, I see a lot of the same bubble-like characteristics in the market but also some big differences. 

Two big payment companies; Square and PayPal have stepped up their involvement in Bitcoin, making it much more accessible to the general public. This is furthering the notion of mainstream adoption of Bitcoin as a currency – not something that is just for speculation. Also, some big investors have been coming around to the idea of Bitcoin as a store of value and a hedge against a falling US dollar. Adoption by big investors puts Bitcoin on the path to being a major asset class alongside stocks, bonds and the like- and could ultimately result in everyday investors having it in their portfolio.

Right thanks everyone, good luck trading this week and make sure to subscribe to our channel so you don’t miss the next video.
 

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