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Week Ahead: June 22

Short Description

RBNZ, US GDP & Nike Earnings This week I focus on three top events for the week ahead – that’s the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting, first-quarter GDP from the US, and quarterly earnings from Nike – I also run through top items on the economic calendar.

Video Script

Hi everyone, I’m looking ahead to what to expect in financial markets next week and I’ll give you my top three things I think could create some movement in forex, stocks and commodity markets. BUT FIRST, let me challenge you with this riddle that I thought quite appropriate for thinking about the week ahead.

Can you name three consecutive days without using the words Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, or Sunday? --------- I’ll give you a few seconds ------------- Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow.

If you liked that - please give the video a thumbs up and help make us the TOP video to preview the week ahead! Now as you’re finished clicking, let’s first preview the economic calendar and then I’ll go through my top three highlights for the week.

First up we have Eurozone consumer confidence, which is expected to have fallen back in June after an uptick in May. Then there are PMIs for June from France, Germany, the UK and US on Tuesday. The RBNZ interest rate decision is Wednesday- followed by Germany IFO and consumer confidence data – as well as US durable goods and the latest iteration of US first quarter GDP on Thursday. Then there is inflation from Japan and finally the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation on Friday – the core PCE price index for May.

Number one is the RNBZ meeting. New Zealand interest rates should remain at 0.25% given that New Zealand’s economy has nearly fully opened except external borders and markets have been functioning well. The Kiwi dollar is down from its highest levels since January but the trend remains higher. I think the biggest downside risk would be if Governor Orr implies negative interest rates could come this year after having said previously it would be technically possible in 2021.

Number two is US GDP. The previous estimate for Q1 was minus 5.0%- and the way this data works is that the number shifts as more data from later in the month becomes available. What’s interesting here is that the end of March was when the pandemic started to take effect- so just watch out in case the revisions are bigger than normal because it could cause some upset. Consensus is a slight drop to minus 5.1%.

Last but not least is the quarterly earnings report from Nike on Thursday- that’s June 25th, which covers the period of late February to late May. On May 14 Nike stated 95% of its stores were open in China- but only 5% of its stores were open in North America. Analysts have cut Nike earnings expectations by 50% in the last 60 days, which for me just makes for a fascinating contrast with the fact that Nike shares are up a staggering SIXTY PERCENT from the March low and hit new record highs.

Right thanks everyone, good luck trading and make sure to subscribe to our channel so you don’t miss the next video.

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