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Week Ahead: June 15

Short Description

Top 5 Things To Watch for June 15-22 Find out the TOP 5 things you need to know for trading this week by joining me for a short and lively preview of the week ahead in financial markets.

Video Script

Hi everyone,

I’ve got the top five things you absolutely NEED to know about for the week ahead in financial markets. BUT first, answer me this --- What goes up when the rain comes down? – I’ll give you a second or two – and by the way - no it’s not the stock market! --- It’s an umbrella J

Hope you liked that – if you did please give that like button a quick ding – it really helps more people get to see the video.

OK so what are these top five things? Let me lay out all the highlights from the economic calendar first and then I’ll go through them.

So first up there is China industrial production and retail sales on Monday. Then we have the first of the three major central bank decisions this week with the Bank of Japan. Next there’s UK unemployment for April. I’ve highlighted German CPI on Tuesday but there is also Eurozone CPI on Wednesday. Then there’s US retail sales. We’ve got CPI data from the UK and Canada on Wednesday followed by New Zealand GDP. Thursday has the remaining two central bank meetings –first the Swiss National Bank then the Bank of England. Then on Friday we have UK retail sales.

Right guys, number 1 thing to watch is the China data at the start of the week. Asian equities, the yuan and Aussie dollar could all move on this. Industrial production is supposed have gained 5% year-over-year and the decline in retail sales is expected to have slowed to minus 2%, both of which show the Chinese –and global economy moving in the right direction.

Number two is that Bank of Japan decision- and for me the yen currency pairs are where to play this. The yen has been all over the place versus the dollar but there is an uptrend in the pound-yen and euro-yen crosses. If the Bank of Japan pivots more dovish – by for example adding a specific timeline for how long it will keep rates down- like the Fed jut did – then these trends could continue.

Number three is May US retail sales for the obvious reason we want to see an end to the record minus 17% month-over-month drop from April. The forecast is for a 7% monthly rebound. All dollar pairs and US indices are tradable here and the dollar was showing signs of a bullish reversal last week.

Number four is the Swiss National Bank decision. The Swissie currency pairs – especially Euro-Swissie are ones to watch here. The backdrop is that the SNB have been intervening heavily into the foreign exchange market to defend against strength in the franc. Now the ECB have gone and doubled the size of their bond-buying program so the SNB may well have to try and match it to keep a lid on the franc.

Last but not least is the Bank of England where I’ll be on top of the Sterling FX pairs. Now it’s the same old Brexit story here – we’ve got an EU summit at the end of this month to hammer out some kind of preliminary UK-EU trade deal. The Bank of England may choose not to change things before the summit BUT on the other hand, a few members have been talking up negative rates – and the OECD just forecast the UK economy will be the worst hit in the G20 in 2020.

Right thanks everyone, good luck trading and make sure to subscribe to our channel so you don’t miss the next video.

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