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Trump might veto stimulus

SP500 – Daily Candlesticks
Source: GKFX / MT4 (December 24, 2020)

SP500 continues to trend higher but has been limited by a rising trendline through the highs starting September 2. While under the trendline the index is losing momentum, but a break above it would signal strength.  
 

TAKEAWAYS


•    Trump delays signing stimulus bill, wants $2000 checks not $600
•    GBP/USD back over 1.35 -> Brexit trade deal ‘imminent’ say reports
•    XRP slumps another 25% after SEC files lawsuit
•    2-10-year Treasury yield curve steepest since 2017
•    Dollar stumbles, gold halts 3-day decline
•    DAY AHEAD: Christmas Eve/Day, Japan inflation, Japan retail trade
 

GURU WISDOM


"Financial peace isn't the acquisition of stuff. It's learning to live on less than you make, so you can give money back and have money to invest. You can't win until you do this." — Dave Ramsey
 

MARKETS


*Daily closing price
↗ EUR/USD    1.2177        (+0.14%)
↗ GBP/USD    1.3489        (+0.96%)
↘ USD/JPY    103.57        (-0.05%)
↗ S&P 500    3705.43    (+0.48%)
↗ Hang Seng    26,343        (+0.86%)
↗ Gold        1871.28    (+0.63%)
↗ Oil (Brent)    51.10        (+2.04%)
↘ Bitcoin    23,490        (-1.32%)
 

NEWS

 

$2000 checks


The idea that Americans were about to receive ‘economic relief’ checks for $600 next week has been thrown into question after President Trump insisted the checks were “ridiculously low” and should be for $2000. Democrats are backing the request for bigger checks but it’s not clear if Republicans will do the same. Stocks have pushed up despite the setback on the assumption that the bill will be passed but perhaps with a short delay. Markets may need to recalibrate if a veto becomes realistic, whereby a delay of several weeks to stimulus becomes possible. 
 

GBP Brexit


Hopes of an EU/UK trade deal are rising and that has helped GBP/USD push over 1.35 and EUR/GBP drop back towards 0.90. The word is that a ‘political agreement’ is in place, which just needs to be put into a legal text. If key areas of disagreement have been overcome then a deal is as good as done, removing much of the uncertainty around Sterling.
 

Yield curve


The Treasury yield curve (the spread between 2 and 10-year bond yields) steepened to its widest since 2017 amid the hopes an EU/UK trade deal will bolster the economic recovery in 2021.The 10-year yield sits around 0.97% and looks to be charting a course towards 1%, which would drag the yield curve even steeper.
 

DAY AHEAD 


*Times in GMT
All Day      -        Holiday    Germany - Christmas Eve - Closed
All Day      -        Holiday    United Kingdom - Christmas - Early close at 12:30
All Day      -        Holiday    United States - Christmas - Early close at 13:00
13:30      USD        Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Nov)         0.7%    1.3%
23:30      JPY        Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Dec)             -0.8%    -0.7%
23:50      JPY        Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov)                 1.7%    11.9%    

 

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