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OPEC Meeting Today

GBP/AUD – Daily Candlesticks
Source: GKFX / MT4 (November 29, 2020)

GBP/AUD made a false break above a falling trendline and is now testing round number 1.80 support and prior lows.
 

TAKEAWAYS


•    Oil cartel OPEC+ starts a 2-day meeting Monday to decide oil output quotas
•    S&P 500, Nasdaq notch record highs in half-day trading on Friday
•    Dow Jones is up 13% in November, on course for best month since January 1987
•    VIX falls below 20 for first time since February
•    This week: Powell testimony, NFP, Brexit
•    DAY AHEAD: China PMIs, OPEC, Chicago PMI
 

GURU WISDOM


“You need to know very well when to move away, or give up the loss, and not allow the anxiety to trick you into trying again.” – Warren Buffett
 

MARKETS


*Daily closing price
↗ EUR/USD    1.1841        (+0.41%) 
↘ GBP/USD    1.3322        (-0.31%)
↘ USD/JPY    104.53        (-0.14%)
↗ S&P 500    3638.35    (+0.24%)
↗ Hang Seng    26,894        (+0.28%)
↘ Gold    Spot    1788.13    (-1.24%)
↗ Oil (Brent)    48.18        (+0.79%)
↗ Bitcoin    18,329        (+4.24%)
 

NEWS

OPEC

The next two days will play a big part in whether oil can extend its monthly gains and a possible move beyond $50 in Brent crude. Expectations are that OPEC+ will delay plans to taper its output cuts by 2M barrels per day for another three months because of the uncertainty over the demand outlook. It is the expected outcome but should be net positive for oil prices.
 

S&P record


It ended up a being a strong week for markets with the S&P 500 rising 2%. US President Trump signalling he is ready to leave the White House bolstered sentiment at the end of a month of strong gains thanks to optimism around coivid-19 vaccines. This week the Dow closed above 30,000 for the first time and looks on course for its best monthly return in nearly 34 years.
 

VIX < 20


As markets flew higher in the past month, volatility has been falling. The VIX index, a measure of implied volatility in the S&P 500 fell below 20 for the first time since February in a sign of calming markets. Contrarians might view the reading as markets showing complacency despite lots of economic uncertainty.
 

Black Friday


Online retailers jumped on Friday amid news of a record-breaking Black Friday for online sales, up 20% over the previous year to $5.1 billion according to Adobe analytics. Shares of Amazon, Etsy and GameStop all jumped. It was a bleaker outlook for physical stores, where sales were reportedly down over 50% on last year.
 

DAY AHEAD 


*Times in GMT
01:00    CNY    Non-Manufacturing PMI(Nov)     52.1    56.2    
01:00    CNY    NBS Manufacturing PMI(Nov)     51.5    51.4
13:00    EUR    Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)(Nov) PREL      -0.5 %    -0.5 %
14:45    USD    Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (Nov)     59.2    61.1