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EUR/GBP hits 11-month low

 

 

TAKEAWAYS


•    Euro-pound exchange rate (EUR/GBP) hits lowest level since March 2020
•    GBP/USD hits highest since April 26, 2018
•    Dollar steadies after jobless claims see surprise jump
•    WTI crude drops back to $60 as Texas energy crisis rolls on
•    Gold lingers near multi-month lows as yields ramp
•    No catchup bid in Chinese shares suggests enthusiasm waning 
•    Bitcoin pulls back from ramp to $52k record – Ethereum rips towards $2000
•    ECB minutes concluded stimulus essential & “no room for complacency” 
•    Facebook stock drops after blocking news posts in Australia
•    Walmart stock drops on earnings miss, underpinned by big new share buyback program
•    DAY AHEAD: Australia retail sales, UK retail sales, February PMIs

 

SP500 – H4 Candlesticks

Source: GKFX / MT4 (February 18, 2021)

SP500 failed to rally from a tweezer bottom and dropped to test the low from February 10. The two points connected form a possible neckline from a head and shoulders pattern. A break of the neckline opens up a steeper decline towards 3800.

 

GURU WISDOM


“Before making any investment … you must be able to explain why the other party is willing to take the other side of the deal… if you cannot come up with a good explanation, your buy, sell or bet is almost certainly not as good as you think.” – David Sklansky


MARKETS


*Daily closing price
↘ EUR/USD    1.2141        (+0.49%)
↘ GBP/USD    1.3665        (-0.15%)
↘ USD/JPY    103.77        (-0.02%)
↗ S&P 500    3855.36    (+0.36%)
↗ Hang Seng    30,159.01    (+2.41%)
↘ Gold        1855.18    (-0.10%)
↗ Oil (Brent)    55.70        (+0.81%)
↗ Bitcoin    32,316        (+0.06%)

 


NEWS

 


The British pound remains top riser in FX markets, extending a run of gains against the beleaguered euro, taking EUR/GBP to its lowest in 11 months. The currency has appreciated significantly since the 2016 Brexit vote and could have further to fall following the EU/UK trade deal. 


Dovish ECB meeting minutes added to weakness in the euro against the pound, although EUR/USD popped amid a broader dollar pullback.


Altcoins led by Ethereum took advantage of a Bitcoin pullback, attracting crypto inflows and gaining market share. Ethereum pushed well though $1900 on course for a possible test of $2k.


Facebook dropped 1.5% after its controversial decision to block news posts in Australia before an upcoming vote on whether the social network should pay news organisations for displaying their content.


Oil prices reversed recent gains, although a solution to the electricity grid chaos remained elusive in Texas and other US states. WTI fell back to the $60 handle. 

 


DAY AHEAD 


*Times in GMT
00:30 – Australia Retail Sales s.a. (MoM)(Jan) Prel [2 % Exp vs. -4.1 % Prev]
07:00 – UK Retail Sales (MoM)(Jan) [-2.5 % Exp vs. 0.3 % Prev]
08:30 – Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI(Feb) Prel  [56.5 Exp vs. 57.1 Prev]
09:30 – UK Markit Services PMI(Feb) Prel [40.7 Exp vs. 39.5 Prev]
13:30 – Canada Retail Sales (MoM)(Dec) [-2.5 % Exp vs. 1.3 % Prev]     
14:45 – US Markit Services PMI(Feb) Prel [57.5 Exp vs. 58.3 Prev]
 

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